A decade after the UK embarked on a hasty referendum that polarised the nation and triggered turmoil, a warning comes from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Authorities and voters drifted into Brexit and the identical could occur with a national vote on a unified Ireland, triggering upheavals for which nobody is prepared.
That conveys the caution from two leading commentators from either side of the Irish border who have teamed up to scrutinise the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to form a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Structures Unprepared
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have concluded that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are gravely unprepared for a possibly fraught and seismic referendum.
"The key takeaway of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that events can arise suddenly and can build support very quickly," O’Toole stated. "It is my view that the governmental framework of our archipelago remains highly fragile."
New Title Aims to Stir Debate
The team have analysed the political, financial and societal rationales for any governmental shift in a publication, The Case For and Against Unification, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to provoke discussion on the topic with a tour of speaking events that will bring them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What haunts all parties, or ought to concern everybody, is the Brexit vote of 2016," said the analyst.
"We must avoid a referendum on a thumbs up-thumbs down, unclear proposal whose results have not been clarified because then you end up with an extraordinarily divided society where those defeated are unable to accept losing and the victorious side lack clarity quite what it is that they have won."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland official should call a public vote on Irish unity if it appears likely that a majority would support.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists say such a time is looming, and a group named pro-unification advocates has garnered backing, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions play down the possibility, making it uncertain when or if there might be a national vote.
Absence of Substantive Discussion
Partisan language for and against unity has obscured the lack of informed dialogue, said the journalist.
"Many are supportive or opposed the concept but the detailed consideration which might go beyond that to make it possible hasn't for the most part happened. A lot has occurred in universities but very few politicians or activists are willing to participate with even the essentials. As an example, what type of nation would you want? Centralised? Federal?"
Publication's Method
In the book, none of the commentators endorses unity or the status quo. They writes two articles that aim for objectivity in detailing the argument for a unified Ireland and the rationale opposing it, assembling financial and societal figures, historical precedents and structural examples.
Debates encompass identity markers, taxes, healthcare systems, elderly benefits, sovereign debt obligations and the danger of loyalist violence. The goal is to inform and stimulate dialogue.
"There's huge interest in the issue but there hasn't quite been a discussion," commented the writer. "Discussion indicates an acceptance of the idea that there might be reasonable perspectives on either side."
Dual Referendums
A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where citizens claim they support unification but reject greater financial contributions or implementing a alternative symbol to recognise unionists' British identity.
"Authorities in Dublin must work out what the plan from Irish nationalism is aside from just stating: 'We seek a united Ireland and we love you'," stated the commentator.
Possibility of Public Vote
McBride considers a referendum in his lifetime is possible and that it might occur unexpectedly. "There might be just a reckless or a poor or a feckless secretary of state who says: 'Let's just do this and get it out of the way.'"
Each of the nationalists and unionists have plausible, valid points, he said. "One side will succeed on this issue and the other side will eventually lose but all factions has has something to acquire from the opposing viewpoints."
Request for Broader Dialogue
Westminster must join the debate, said O’Toole. "This concerns the United Kingdom. It's a British question just as much as it is an Irish issue."
